Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Sunday 05 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
France 7560 (+1053) 89953 (+25615) 15438 (+1430) 66955 (+23132)
United States 8442 (+1051) 310133 (+33202) 14741 (+2473) 286950 (+29678)
Spain 11947 (+749) 126168 (+6969) 34219 (+3706) 80002 (+2514)
United Kingdom 4313 (+708) 41903 (+3735) 135 (+0) 37455 (+3027)
Italy 15362 (+681) 124632 (+4805) 20996 (+1238) 88274 (+2886)
Germany 1444 (+169) 96092 (+4933) 26400 (+1825) 68248 (+2939)
Netherlands 1651 (+164) 16627 (+904) 250 (+0) 14726 (+740)
Iran 3452 (+158) 55743 (+2560) 19736 (+1801) 32555 (+601)
Belgium 1283 (+140) 18431 (+1661) 3247 (+375) 13901 (+1146)
Brazil 445 (+82) 10360 (+1166) 127 (+0) 9788 (+1084)
Turkey 501 (+76) 23934 (+3013) 786 (+302) 22647 (+2635)
Switzerland 666 (+75) 20505 (+899) 6415 (+1569) 13424 (-745)
Ecuador 172 (+27) 3465 (+97) 100 (+35) 3193 (+35)
Algeria 130 (+25) 1251 (+80) 90 (+28) 1031 (+27)
Canada 231 (+23) 13912 (+1537) 2595 (+409) 11086 (+1105)
Denmark 161 (+22) 4077 (+320) 1283 (+90) 2633 (+208)
Portugal 266 (+20) 10524 (+638) 75 (+7) 10183 (+611)
Austria 186 (+18) 11781 (+257) 2507 (+485) 9088 (-246)
Ireland 137 (+17) 4604 (+331) 25 (+20) 4442 (+294)
Sweden 373 (+15) 6443 (+312) 205 (+0) 5865 (+297)
Japan 77 (+14) 3139 (+522) 514 (+0) 2548 (+508)
India 86 (+14) 3082 (+515) 229 (+37) 2767 (+464)
Romania 146 (+13) 3613 (+430) 329 (+46) 3138 (+371)
Peru 73 (+12) 1746 (+151) 914 (+377) 759 (-238)
Morocco 59 (+11) 919 (+128) 66 (+9) 794 (+108)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 61336 (+5518) 1117940 (+101788) 169419 (+17620)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 73245 ( +9049) 1328521 ( +145583) 203615 ( +27376)
Mon 06 April 2020 83569 ( +10324) 1492021 ( +163499) 235243 ( +31628)
Tue 07 April 2020 95349 ( +11779) 1675641 ( +183621) 271785 ( +36541)
Wed 08 April 2020 108789 ( +13440) 1881860 ( +206219) 314002 ( +42218)
Thu 09 April 2020 124123 ( +15334) 2113458 ( +231598) 362778 ( +48775)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 3326 (+4) 81639 (+19) 76755 (+184)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 3256 ( +0) 81020 ( +0) 75414 ( +69)
Mon 06 April 2020 3257 ( +0) 81021 ( +0) 75474 ( +60)
Tue 07 April 2020 3257 ( +0) 81021 ( +0) 75526 ( +52)
Wed 08 April 2020 3257 ( +0) 81021 ( +0) 75572 ( +46)
Thu 09 April 2020 3257 ( +0) 81021 ( +0) 75612 ( +40)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 11947 (+749) 126168 (+6969) 34219 (+3706)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 12326 ( +552) 129716 ( +5107) 37163 ( +3245)
Mon 06 April 2020 12790 ( +464) 134145 ( +4428) 40110 ( +2947)
Tue 07 April 2020 13174 ( +384) 137937 ( +3793) 42711 ( +2601)
Wed 08 April 2020 13487 ( +313) 141152 ( +3214) 44949 ( +2238)
Thu 09 April 2020 13739 ( +252) 143852 ( +2700) 46834 ( +1885)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 15362 (+681) 124632 (+4805) 20996 (+1238)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 15624 ( +499) 124183 ( +2562) 21545 ( +997)
Mon 06 April 2020 16064 ( +440) 126418 ( +2235) 22471 ( +926)
Tue 07 April 2020 16450 ( +385) 128357 ( +1939) 23322 ( +852)
Wed 08 April 2020 16784 ( +335) 130031 ( +1674) 24099 ( +776)
Thu 09 April 2020 17073 ( +289) 131470 ( +1439) 24800 ( +701)

United States

I use the combined data for all the states combined

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 8442 (+1051) 310133 (+33202) 14741 (+2473)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 10915 ( +2071) 386497 ( +56512) 19557 ( +3999)
Mon 06 April 2020 13472 ( +2556) 452686 ( +66190) 24585 ( +5028)
Tue 07 April 2020 16627 ( +3155) 530212 ( +77525) 30905 ( +6320)
Wed 08 April 2020 20521 ( +3894) 621013 ( +90802) 38849 ( +7945)
Thu 09 April 2020 25327 ( +4806) 727365 ( +106352) 48836 ( +9987)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 7560 (+1053) 89953 (+25615) 15438 (+1430)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 9125 ( +1518) 90003 ( +9082) 19550 ( +2875)
Mon 06 April 2020 10946 ( +1821) 99716 ( +9713) 22922 ( +3371)
Tue 07 April 2020 13130 ( +2184) 110021 ( +10305) 26874 ( +3952)
Wed 08 April 2020 15751 ( +2620) 120862 ( +10841) 31508 ( +4634)
Thu 09 April 2020 18894 ( +3143) 132165 ( +11303) 36941 ( +5433)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 3452 (+158) 55743 (+2560) 19736 (+1801)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 3379 ( +67) 58794 ( +2979) 21993 ( +1716)
Mon 06 April 2020 3437 ( +58) 61760 ( +2966) 23854 ( +1861)
Tue 07 April 2020 3488 ( +51) 64696 ( +2936) 25873 ( +2019)
Wed 08 April 2020 3532 ( +44) 67587 ( +2891) 28063 ( +2190)
Thu 09 April 2020 3570 ( +38) 70418 ( +2831) 30439 ( +2375)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 1444 (+169) 96092 (+4933) 26400 (+1825)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 1611 ( +166) 98432 ( +3955) 35846 ( +6168)
Mon 06 April 2020 1767 ( +156) 101910 ( +3477) 43296 ( +7451)
Tue 07 April 2020 1909 ( +142) 104932 ( +3022) 52295 ( +8999)
Wed 08 April 2020 2034 ( +125) 107531 ( +2599) 63165 ( +10870)
Thu 09 April 2020 2141 ( +108) 109746 ( +2216) 76294 ( +13129)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 4313 (+708) 41903 (+3735) 135 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 5462 ( +1064) 51603 ( +7173) 188 ( +12)
Mon 06 April 2020 6784 ( +1322) 59934 ( +8331) 201 ( +13)
Tue 07 April 2020 8426 ( +1642) 69610 ( +9676) 215 ( +14)
Wed 08 April 2020 10466 ( +2040) 80847 ( +11238) 230 ( +15)
Thu 09 April 2020 12999 ( +2534) 93899 ( +13052) 245 ( +16)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 373 (+15) 6443 (+312) 205 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 446 ( +55) 6960 ( +513) 231 ( +17)
Mon 06 April 2020 500 ( +54) 7487 ( +527) 238 ( +7)
Tue 07 April 2020 552 ( +52) 8026 ( +539) 241 ( +3)
Wed 08 April 2020 600 ( +48) 8572 ( +546) 242 ( +1)
Thu 09 April 2020 643 ( +43) 9121 ( +549) 243 ( +0)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 1651 (+164) 16627 (+904) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 1765 ( +130) 17191 ( +720) 250 ( +0)
Mon 06 April 2020 1882 ( +117) 17827 ( +635) 250 ( +0)
Tue 07 April 2020 1984 ( +102) 18380 ( +554) 250 ( +0)
Wed 08 April 2020 2072 ( +88) 18857 ( +477) 250 ( +0)
Thu 09 April 2020 2145 ( +74) 19265 ( +408) 250 ( +0)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 79 (+8) 3627 (+244) 116 (+60)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 98 ( +17) 3910 ( +306) 166 ( +55)
Mon 06 April 2020 120 ( +21) 4205 ( +295) 248 ( +83)
Tue 07 April 2020 146 ( +26) 4485 ( +280) 372 ( +124)
Wed 08 April 2020 177 ( +31) 4746 ( +261) 559 ( +186)
Thu 09 April 2020 215 ( +38) 4986 ( +240) 838 ( +279)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 666 (+75) 20505 (+899) 6415 (+1569)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 715 ( +56) 20247 ( +423) 8296 ( +1887)
Mon 06 April 2020 767 ( +52) 20599 ( +352) 10738 ( +2442)
Tue 07 April 2020 814 ( +47) 20890 ( +290) 13899 ( +3161)
Wed 08 April 2020 856 ( +42) 21128 ( +238) 17990 ( +4091)
Thu 09 April 2020 893 ( +37) 21322 ( +195) 23285 ( +5295)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 04 April 2020 1283 (+140) 18431 (+1661) 3247 (+375)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 05 April 2020 1440 ( +145) 19261 ( +1111) 4105 ( +668)
Mon 06 April 2020 1571 ( +131) 20258 ( +997) 4903 ( +798)
Tue 07 April 2020 1685 ( +114) 21138 ( +880) 5857 ( +954)
Wed 08 April 2020 1782 ( +97) 21904 ( +765) 6996 ( +1139)
Thu 09 April 2020 1862 ( +80) 22561 ( +657) 8357 ( +1361)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.