Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions¶
Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.
Table of contents¶
Updated on Sunday 05 April 2020¶
Author: Javier Moldon
More info in https://github.com/jmoldon/coronavirus_analysis
link to this report: https://jmoldon.github.io/coronavirus_analysis/cvid_report.html
"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard
General statistics¶
List of most affected countries¶
Sorted by highest number of deaths in the previous day
| Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered | Active | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country/Region | ||||
| France | 7560 (+1053) | 89953 (+25615) | 15438 (+1430) | 66955 (+23132) |
| United States | 8442 (+1051) | 310133 (+33202) | 14741 (+2473) | 286950 (+29678) |
| Spain | 11947 (+749) | 126168 (+6969) | 34219 (+3706) | 80002 (+2514) |
| United Kingdom | 4313 (+708) | 41903 (+3735) | 135 (+0) | 37455 (+3027) |
| Italy | 15362 (+681) | 124632 (+4805) | 20996 (+1238) | 88274 (+2886) |
| Germany | 1444 (+169) | 96092 (+4933) | 26400 (+1825) | 68248 (+2939) |
| Netherlands | 1651 (+164) | 16627 (+904) | 250 (+0) | 14726 (+740) |
| Iran | 3452 (+158) | 55743 (+2560) | 19736 (+1801) | 32555 (+601) |
| Belgium | 1283 (+140) | 18431 (+1661) | 3247 (+375) | 13901 (+1146) |
| Brazil | 445 (+82) | 10360 (+1166) | 127 (+0) | 9788 (+1084) |
| Turkey | 501 (+76) | 23934 (+3013) | 786 (+302) | 22647 (+2635) |
| Switzerland | 666 (+75) | 20505 (+899) | 6415 (+1569) | 13424 (-745) |
| Ecuador | 172 (+27) | 3465 (+97) | 100 (+35) | 3193 (+35) |
| Algeria | 130 (+25) | 1251 (+80) | 90 (+28) | 1031 (+27) |
| Canada | 231 (+23) | 13912 (+1537) | 2595 (+409) | 11086 (+1105) |
| Denmark | 161 (+22) | 4077 (+320) | 1283 (+90) | 2633 (+208) |
| Portugal | 266 (+20) | 10524 (+638) | 75 (+7) | 10183 (+611) |
| Austria | 186 (+18) | 11781 (+257) | 2507 (+485) | 9088 (-246) |
| Ireland | 137 (+17) | 4604 (+331) | 25 (+20) | 4442 (+294) |
| Sweden | 373 (+15) | 6443 (+312) | 205 (+0) | 5865 (+297) |
| Japan | 77 (+14) | 3139 (+522) | 514 (+0) | 2548 (+508) |
| India | 86 (+14) | 3082 (+515) | 229 (+37) | 2767 (+464) |
| Romania | 146 (+13) | 3613 (+430) | 329 (+46) | 3138 (+371) |
| Peru | 73 (+12) | 1746 (+151) | 914 (+377) | 759 (-238) |
| Morocco | 59 (+11) | 919 (+128) | 66 (+9) | 794 (+108) |
Global situation¶
These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.
Deaths¶
Confirmed Cases¶
World (except China)¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 61336 (+5518) | 1117940 (+101788) | 169419 (+17620) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 73245 ( +9049) | 1328521 ( +145583) | 203615 ( +27376) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 83569 ( +10324) | 1492021 ( +163499) | 235243 ( +31628) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 95349 ( +11779) | 1675641 ( +183621) | 271785 ( +36541) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 108789 ( +13440) | 1881860 ( +206219) | 314002 ( +42218) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 124123 ( +15334) | 2113458 ( +231598) | 362778 ( +48775) |
China¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 3326 (+4) | 81639 (+19) | 76755 (+184) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 3256 ( +0) | 81020 ( +0) | 75414 ( +69) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 3257 ( +0) | 81021 ( +0) | 75474 ( +60) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 3257 ( +0) | 81021 ( +0) | 75526 ( +52) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 3257 ( +0) | 81021 ( +0) | 75572 ( +46) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 3257 ( +0) | 81021 ( +0) | 75612 ( +40) |
Evolution of cases¶
All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.
Spain¶
Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 11947 (+749) | 126168 (+6969) | 34219 (+3706) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 12326 ( +552) | 129716 ( +5107) | 37163 ( +3245) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 12790 ( +464) | 134145 ( +4428) | 40110 ( +2947) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 13174 ( +384) | 137937 ( +3793) | 42711 ( +2601) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 13487 ( +313) | 141152 ( +3214) | 44949 ( +2238) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 13739 ( +252) | 143852 ( +2700) | 46834 ( +1885) |
Italy¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 15362 (+681) | 124632 (+4805) | 20996 (+1238) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 15624 ( +499) | 124183 ( +2562) | 21545 ( +997) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 16064 ( +440) | 126418 ( +2235) | 22471 ( +926) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 16450 ( +385) | 128357 ( +1939) | 23322 ( +852) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 16784 ( +335) | 130031 ( +1674) | 24099 ( +776) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 17073 ( +289) | 131470 ( +1439) | 24800 ( +701) |
United States¶
I use the combined data for all the states combined
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 8442 (+1051) | 310133 (+33202) | 14741 (+2473) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 10915 ( +2071) | 386497 ( +56512) | 19557 ( +3999) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 13472 ( +2556) | 452686 ( +66190) | 24585 ( +5028) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 16627 ( +3155) | 530212 ( +77525) | 30905 ( +6320) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 20521 ( +3894) | 621013 ( +90802) | 38849 ( +7945) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 25327 ( +4806) | 727365 ( +106352) | 48836 ( +9987) |
France¶
I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 7560 (+1053) | 89953 (+25615) | 15438 (+1430) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 9125 ( +1518) | 90003 ( +9082) | 19550 ( +2875) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 10946 ( +1821) | 99716 ( +9713) | 22922 ( +3371) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 13130 ( +2184) | 110021 ( +10305) | 26874 ( +3952) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 15751 ( +2620) | 120862 ( +10841) | 31508 ( +4634) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 18894 ( +3143) | 132165 ( +11303) | 36941 ( +5433) |
Iran¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 3452 (+158) | 55743 (+2560) | 19736 (+1801) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 3379 ( +67) | 58794 ( +2979) | 21993 ( +1716) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 3437 ( +58) | 61760 ( +2966) | 23854 ( +1861) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 3488 ( +51) | 64696 ( +2936) | 25873 ( +2019) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 3532 ( +44) | 67587 ( +2891) | 28063 ( +2190) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 3570 ( +38) | 70418 ( +2831) | 30439 ( +2375) |
Germany¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 1444 (+169) | 96092 (+4933) | 26400 (+1825) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 1611 ( +166) | 98432 ( +3955) | 35846 ( +6168) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 1767 ( +156) | 101910 ( +3477) | 43296 ( +7451) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 1909 ( +142) | 104932 ( +3022) | 52295 ( +8999) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 2034 ( +125) | 107531 ( +2599) | 63165 ( +10870) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 2141 ( +108) | 109746 ( +2216) | 76294 ( +13129) |
United Kingdom¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 4313 (+708) | 41903 (+3735) | 135 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 5462 ( +1064) | 51603 ( +7173) | 188 ( +12) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 6784 ( +1322) | 59934 ( +8331) | 201 ( +13) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 8426 ( +1642) | 69610 ( +9676) | 215 ( +14) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 10466 ( +2040) | 80847 ( +11238) | 230 ( +15) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 12999 ( +2534) | 93899 ( +13052) | 245 ( +16) |
Sweden¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 373 (+15) | 6443 (+312) | 205 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 446 ( +55) | 6960 ( +513) | 231 ( +17) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 500 ( +54) | 7487 ( +527) | 238 ( +7) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 552 ( +52) | 8026 ( +539) | 241 ( +3) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 600 ( +48) | 8572 ( +546) | 242 ( +1) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 643 ( +43) | 9121 ( +549) | 243 ( +0) |
Netherlands¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 1651 (+164) | 16627 (+904) | 250 (+0) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 1765 ( +130) | 17191 ( +720) | 250 ( +0) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 1882 ( +117) | 17827 ( +635) | 250 ( +0) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 1984 ( +102) | 18380 ( +554) | 250 ( +0) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 2072 ( +88) | 18857 ( +477) | 250 ( +0) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 2145 ( +74) | 19265 ( +408) | 250 ( +0) |
Poland¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 79 (+8) | 3627 (+244) | 116 (+60) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 98 ( +17) | 3910 ( +306) | 166 ( +55) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 120 ( +21) | 4205 ( +295) | 248 ( +83) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 146 ( +26) | 4485 ( +280) | 372 ( +124) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 177 ( +31) | 4746 ( +261) | 559 ( +186) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 215 ( +38) | 4986 ( +240) | 838 ( +279) |
Switzerland¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 666 (+75) | 20505 (+899) | 6415 (+1569) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 715 ( +56) | 20247 ( +423) | 8296 ( +1887) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 767 ( +52) | 20599 ( +352) | 10738 ( +2442) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 814 ( +47) | 20890 ( +290) | 13899 ( +3161) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 856 ( +42) | 21128 ( +238) | 17990 ( +4091) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 893 ( +37) | 21322 ( +195) | 23285 ( +5295) |
Belgium¶
Current today¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 04 April 2020 | 1283 (+140) | 18431 (+1661) | 3247 (+375) |
5 day prediction¶
| Date (end of) | Deaths | Confirmed | Recovered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 05 April 2020 | 1440 ( +145) | 19261 ( +1111) | 4105 ( +668) |
| Mon 06 April 2020 | 1571 ( +131) | 20258 ( +997) | 4903 ( +798) |
| Tue 07 April 2020 | 1685 ( +114) | 21138 ( +880) | 5857 ( +954) |
| Wed 08 April 2020 | 1782 ( +97) | 21904 ( +765) | 6996 ( +1139) |
| Thu 09 April 2020 | 1862 ( +80) | 22561 ( +657) | 8357 ( +1361) |
Comparison of different countries¶
Early onset: China regions¶
Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.
Other countries¶
South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.
